Analysts at IDC predict annual
growth in mobile phone sales will drop below 10 percent this year, casting doubt
on Nokia's more upbeat outlook
for 2008.
Nokia and the analysts both put the number of phones sold in 2007 at around
1.14 billion, or 12.4 percent more than were sold in 2006, according to IDC.
But it's unrealistic to expect that growth to continue, IDC analysts said in
a report published Friday.
"We expect growth to be in the single digits throughout 2008, and most
likely for years to follow," they wrote.
On Thursday, Nokia had issued a more upbeat prediction, of 10 percent growth
in mobile phone shipments in 2008 -- and bullishly predicted that its share
will increase beyond the 40 percent of the market it claimed for the fourth
quarter.
That's one figure IDC agreed with, adding that Nokia shipped more units in
the fourth quarter than the next three vendors
combined: Samsung captured 13.9 percent of the market for the quarter (up from
11 percent a year earlier), Motorola 12.2 percent (down from 22 percent) and
Sony Ericsson had 9.2 percent.
Motorola's dramatic
fall to third place during the year was caused by missed opportunities in China
and the market for 3G (third generation) handsets; it is renewing its product
range, but will take until 2009 to recover, said IDC.
For the full year, Nokia once again took top honors,
