2003

by C.J. Mathias

December 23, 2003 —

Since it's the obvious thing to do, I'd like to close out the year with a look back at the key developments in wireless during 2003. And saying that is the easy part, because the amazing level of activity that typifies wireless today continued unabated in 2003. There were new developments across the board - but, given that I don't want to drown you in detail during this festive time of year, our focus for today is on not just what was new, but rather what was significant, and is going to really matter down the road. Here's what the crystal ball is saying to me about the highlights of this year:

Camera phones: These have taken the industry by storm, but really only for consumers. I find them almost useless, with little control over exposure, poor resolution, and poor human factors (working a camera is, not surprisingly, quite different from working a phone). So, despite the fact that both image quality and ease-of-use will likely improve in the future, I see them primarily as a novelty, not a business tool. And yet, it is possible to look out a bit and see business people using them to send images of a new product seen at a trade show, or photos of a possible site for a new building, and many other purposes. What we really need, though, and what camera phones motivate, is a decent wireless link between a real digital camera and the wide-area networking capability of the data-enable cell phone. Bluetooth is not the answer here; in fact, Bluetooth died this year (as a data technology anyway) and few people noticed. So the real reason camera phones are so important is they beg the question as to what will be the high-speed, low-cost wireless interconnect that will make wireless personal-area networks (WPANs) important and valuable - a potentially huge market. Will heir apparent ultrawideband communications win the day? We'll cover that in 2004.

2.75G gets established: I know it irritates the carriers when I refer to their current 1XRTT and EDGE technologies as "2.75G"; after all, they really do qualify as 3G under the accepted definition. 3G actually refers to any wide-area technology that offers at least 144 Kbps and up to 2 Mbps of raw throughput. But since the user throughput of today's wireless WANs is usually much lower, I've been calling these 2.75G. Both, however, offer very respectable throughput - 1XRTT, from Verizon and Sprint, provides on the order of 60-80 Kbps (and sometimes faster), and EDGE, from AT&T Wireless, can provide even more than this and will clearly replace GPRS in most cases. Your mileage may vary, of course, and latency within the wireless networks themselves, the wired networks these connect to, and servers at the other end, continues to be a problem. But both EDGE and 1XRTT are readily available in many parts of the country, and adoption is picking up. There's an even faster technology also now becoming available - 1xEV-DO from Verizon (with 100-300+ Kbps), and we'll cover that in 2004. Will we ever see "real" 2 Mbps 3G? It's looking pretty doubtful, and we'll explore the reasons for that in the coming year as well.

The Wi-Fi explosion: This is really no surprise. Wi-Fi is now well-established in the residence, it's seeing growth in public spaces, and 2004 will be a huge year for Wi-Fi in the enterprise thanks to falling prices for infrastructure and "Centrino Effect" on the client side (hey, if you've got wireless in your notebook, you may as well have it in your building). There is nothing that can stop the proliferation of wireless LANs; it's huge on a global scale. But there were many concerns about security during 2003, along with confusion about standards and what the technology could really do. No matter - the stuff is now so cheap that one can freely experiment and learn what approach works in what environment. On the horizon are higher throughput, improved management, and voice over Wi-Fi - and we'll cover all of these in 2004 as well.

And that's really been the story of wireless over the past few years - problems, challenges, solutions, new technologies, new products, and more problems. As I've mentioned before, for a technology that's over 200 years old, the amount of innovation is just incredible - and perhaps greater than in any other area of high tech, bar none. Going forward, we can expect more of the same - a lot more. And in two weeks I'll cover what I expect to be the big wireless issues of 2004. In the meantime, I hope you'll be spending the holidays like I do - slowing down a little, spending a lot of time with family and friends, and, of course, trying new wireless products and services. It's a disease, I tell you, a disease! But it's a fun one.

My best wishes to you for the holidays and the new year - see you in 2004.

Farpoint Group